Fall Frost Forecast!

Time Issued: 6:00 pm

Date: Fri., Nov. 4, 2005

To hear the evening forecast from your Clearwest Meteorologist, click HERE.

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For this morning's observed minimum temperatures - click Here

Discussion:  Tonight's forecast is the final forecast of this Fall's Frost Forecasting Program.

A weather disturbance moving southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska will bring more rain - snow at the higher elevations - to the Okanogan early tonight.  Partial clearing with a decreasing chance of showers can be expected overnight, however, as the disturbance moves east of the area. Minimums will once again have the potential to drop to the lower 20s in  the coldest spots again tonight, but there'll probably be enough cloudy periods and mixing from the winds aloft to hold most minimums in the 28-33 degree range.  There's just a slight chance protection could be  needed in the colder areas after about midnight.  Another fairly vigourous pacific weather system will move to the mouth of the Columbia River late tomorrow afternoon and through  Central Washington tomorrow.  Rain - snow at the higher elevations - can be expected to begin over the Okanogan tomorrow afternoon and continue through much of tomorrow night. Minimums Sunday morning should hold in the 30s, as a result.  Partial clearing can be expected behind this next disturbance Sunday and Sunday night, though we can expect a few mountain showers to continue.  The air mass will be cooler Sunday night, and minimums are expected to drop to 25-33, as a result.  For Monday into Wednesday, the forecast charts indicate we can expect a westerly flow aloft over our area.  Weather disturbances embedded in flow will give us cloudy periods with some showers at times.  Minimums should hold in the upper 20s to mid 30s through the period, though could drop to the low to mid 20s in the cold spots should prolonged clearing occur at night.

ICE WINE HARVEST OUTLOOK VALID THURSDAY, NOV. 10 THROUGH SUNDAY, NOV. 13:  The forecast charts indicate southern BC will remain under a westerly flow aloft this period.  Weather disturbances embedded in the flow will continue to give us cloudy periods with showers at times.  The air mass associated with the westerly flow aloft is not expected to be unusually cool, so the chance of minimums dipping to the upper teens remains fairly low this period.

TONIGHT
Weather:   Periods of rain - snow at the higher elevations - early tonight.  Partial clearing with a few mountain showers overnight.
Minimum Temp:  Mostly 28-33.
Protection:   Slight chance light protection colder areas with clearing after about midnight.
Ceiling or Inversion:  Moderate with the loss of wind and clouds.

The 4p.m. temperature at Penticton was 45 (7C) with a dewpoint of 34 (1C).
The 4p.m. temperature at Osoyoos was 46 (8C) with a dewpoint of 36 (2C).
The 3p.m. temperature at Oroville PAWS was 46 (8C) with a dew point of 36 (2C).

KEY STATION FORECASTS
Station deg.F. deg.C.

Mission Hill, B.C.

31

-1

Oroville PAWS

30

-1

Ellisforde PAWS

29

-2

SAF= Slightly above freezing (33 or 34 deg F);   AF= Above freezing (35 deg F or higher)


SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
Weather:  Partly to mostly cloudy with a few mountain showers morning.  Rain - snow at the higher elevations - increasing again afternoon and evening - continuing into the night.
Maximum Temp:  40s.
Minimum Temp:  Mostly in the 30s.
Protection:  Probably not needed because of clouds and precipitation.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
Weather:  Partly to mostly cloudy with mountain showers.
Maximum Temp:  40s.
Minimum Temp:  25-33.
Protection: Could be needed colder locations

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:   Partly cloudy to at times cloudy with a chance of showers through the period.  Highs 40s.  Lows upper 20s to mid 30s, though possibly dipping to low to mid 20s colder locations nights with good clearing.

Copyright 2005 Clearwest, Inc.  No part of this publication may be reproduced for commercial purposes.

Bud Graves, Clearwest Agricultural Weather Service

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